Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1536











Mesoscale Discussion 1536
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1536
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0443 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025

   Areas affected...portions of far eastern Wyoming...western South
   Dakota and Nebraska...into far northeast Colorado

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 012143Z - 012315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Initial thunderstorms across parts of the High Plains
   should continue to intensify this afternoon/evening. Damaging gusts
   and hail are possible.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2140 UTC, regional radar and visible imagery
   showed thunderstorm development was underway from eastern WY, into
   northern CO and western NE/SD. Weak ascent from a subtle shortwave
   trough and strong diurnal heating will continue to support storm
   development through this afternoon into this evening. Initial storms
   will likely be high-based as deep mixing has reduced dewpoints into
   the upper 40s in spots. With time, storms should gradually move
   east/southeastward into more moist/unstable conditions. 1500-2000
   J/kg of MLCAPE and mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km will be more
   than sufficient to support strong updrafts. Deep-layer shear, while
   not overly strong (25-35 kt) will favor supercells and organized
   multi cells capable of hail (some potential near 2 inches in
   diameter) given the steep lapse rates and buoyancy. Damaging winds
   are also likely within the deeper-mixed boundary layer.

   Observational trends and CAM guidance suggests storms will continue
   to mature along and south of the Black Hills into western NE this
   evening. The severe threat should increase as convection develops
   and spreads east/southeastward. Some clustering is possible with
   time, though subtle forcing for ascent suggests lower storm coverage
   is perhaps more likely. Given the increasing severe risk, conditions
   are being monitored for a possible weather watch.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 07/01/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   40780354 42130366 43750417 44910414 45000323 44340183
               42390103 41220103 40630165 40350279 40780354 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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