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Mesoscale Discussion 1536 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1536 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Areas affected...portions of far eastern Wyoming...western South Dakota and Nebraska...into far northeast Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 012143Z - 012315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Initial thunderstorms across parts of the High Plains should continue to intensify this afternoon/evening. Damaging gusts and hail are possible. DISCUSSION...As of 2140 UTC, regional radar and visible imagery showed thunderstorm development was underway from eastern WY, into northern CO and western NE/SD. Weak ascent from a subtle shortwave trough and strong diurnal heating will continue to support storm development through this afternoon into this evening. Initial storms will likely be high-based as deep mixing has reduced dewpoints into the upper 40s in spots. With time, storms should gradually move east/southeastward into more moist/unstable conditions. 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km will be more than sufficient to support strong updrafts. Deep-layer shear, while not overly strong (25-35 kt) will favor supercells and organized multi cells capable of hail (some potential near 2 inches in diameter) given the steep lapse rates and buoyancy. Damaging winds are also likely within the deeper-mixed boundary layer. Observational trends and CAM guidance suggests storms will continue to mature along and south of the Black Hills into western NE this evening. The severe threat should increase as convection develops and spreads east/southeastward. Some clustering is possible with time, though subtle forcing for ascent suggests lower storm coverage is perhaps more likely. Given the increasing severe risk, conditions are being monitored for a possible weather watch. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40780354 42130366 43750417 44910414 45000323 44340183 42390103 41220103 40630165 40350279 40780354 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN |
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