Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1529











Mesoscale Discussion 1529
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1529
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1048 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025

   Areas affected...the Mid-Atlantic States

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 011548Z - 011745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...An increasing damaging wind threat and Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch issuance are expected this afternoon

   DISCUSSION...Convection has been slowly building across the central
   Appalachians, ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough that is
   progressing east across the Upper OH Valley. While there is some
   near-term uncertainty of how quickly this initial activity will
   strengthen amid weak DCAPE, the downstream airmass east of the Blue
   Ridge is destabilizing well as surface temperatures have already
   warmed into the upper 80s to low 90s. This will yield an uptick in
   convective intensity as clusters impinge on the Piedmont to Coastal
   Plain where mid 70s surface dew points are pervasive. Although
   lower-level winds will remain weak and predominately veered,
   moderate mid to upper-level westerlies will support organized
   multicells capable of producing multiple strong to isolated severe
   gust swaths. Scattered damaging winds appear likely towards mid to
   late afternoon.

   ..Grams/Mosier.. 07/01/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   40117372 39117452 37967617 37757901 38627929 40127907
               40667848 40497568 40117372 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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