Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1525

   Mesoscale Discussion 1525
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0206 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

   Areas affected...northern MO and central IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 301906Z - 302100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally strong gusts and small hail will be possible with
   storms developing along a cold front and sagging southeast into
   early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Gradual convective development has been underway along
   the trailing portion of a weak southwest/northeast-oriented cold
   front, ahead of a minor MCV over the northern KC Metro Area.
   Somewhat greater boundary-layer heating has occurred ahead of the IL
   portion of the front, which may aid in strong gust potential later
   as storm coverage increases along the front. Low to mid-level wind
   profiles are decidedly weak and westerly ahead of the MCV per area
   VWPs. As such, organizational potential appears rather limited.
   Pulse-type wet microbursts and loose clustering should pose a risk
   of localized strong gusts.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 06/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39149417 39569440 39769370 40029241 40279137 40649023
               40748989 41158812 41118779 40788779 39938852 39308983
               39189167 39209243 39149417 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH