Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1521

   Mesoscale Discussion 1521
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0452 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

   Areas affected...Central and Eastern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 300952Z - 301215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated potential for severe wind gusts may continue
   in parts of central and eastern Kansas over the next couple of
   hours.

   DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Topeka
   shows a line of strong thunderstorms over north-central Kansas,
   which is located along the western edge of a pocket of moderate
   instability. Ahead of the line, the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the
   1000 to 2000 J/Kg range, with about 30 knots of flow at 850 mb. In
   addition, a shortwave trough appears to be located from the Dakotas
   into the central Plains. This should provide support for continued
   convective development over the next few hours. The line recently
   produced a 59 mph wind gust at Russell, Kansas. Although an isolated
   wind-damage threat may continue with the more intense parts of the
   line, it is uncertain the extent of any severe risk going forward
   into the mid morning hours.

   ..Broyles/Smith.. 06/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   39729679 39579637 39339593 39039571 38699572 38249601
               37929671 37869775 38059870 38539883 39149841 39449791
               39729729 39729679 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH