MD 1471 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KY…MIDDLE AND EASTERN TN…NORTHERN AL…EXTREME NORTHWEST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 1471
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025
Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern KY...middle and eastern
TN...northern AL...extreme northwest GA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 271913Z - 272115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Localized damaging wind is possible this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...One cluster of storms is ongoing across parts of middle
TN into northern AL, with another across central KY. Deep-layer
shear is quite weak across the region, but some outflow
consolidation has been noted with both clusters. Additional storm
development will be possible along and to the immediate cool side of
these outflows with time.
Seasonably cool temperatures aloft atop a very warm and moist
boundary layer are resulting in MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg in areas
not already influenced by convective outflow. This very favorable
buoyancy could lead to additional vigorous updrafts, which in turn
could pose a threat of localized downbursts and small to near-severe
hail through the remainder of the afternoon.
..Dean/Hart.. 06/27/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...
BMX...HUN...PAH...
LAT...LON 34488737 34818702 35758672 35988711 36058738 36128782
36448774 37108677 37268541 38638482 38638401 38238313
36988328 36058358 35258410 34358562 34258675 34488737
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN