Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1454

   Mesoscale Discussion 1454
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1236 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

   Areas affected...Extreme southeast NE/northeast KS into northwest MO
   and southwest into central/northeast IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 261736Z - 261930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and possibly a tornado will
   increase with time this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A cold front is moving east across parts of eastern NE
   and northeast KS this afternoon, as a surface low moves from
   southeast SD into southern MN. While cloudiness has limited heating
   to some extent, rich low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE of
   2000-3000 J/kg along/ahead of the front. Storms are already
   developing near a differential heating zone across central IA, with
   other development possible later this afternoon in closer proximity
   to the front. 

   Both low-level and deep-layer shear increase with northward extent
   across the MCD area. Some threat for supercells with a threat for
   locally damaging wind and a tornado may develop into parts of
   central/northeast IA (see MCD 1452 for more information). Farther
   south, despite weaker shear, a broken line of storms with a threat
   of damaging wind may eventually develop along/ahead of the front
   from extreme southeast NE/northeast KS into southwest/south-central
   IA and northwest MO. Watch issuance is likely in order to address
   these threats.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 06/26/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   41129582 42199475 42789269 42849192 42779176 42189177
               41519249 41139284 40719325 40239384 39859460 39909560
               40439599 41129582 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH