Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1393

   Mesoscale Discussion 1393
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1253 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

   Areas affected...portions of northern MN

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449...

   Valid 210553Z - 210730Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential increasing across northern MN.

   DISCUSSION...A new, intense bow is developing across northwest MN as
   a series of supercells have merged and strong rear-inflow (noted in
   the KMVX VWP data) from the west spreads across the region in tandem
   with a 45+ kt low-level jet. This bowing segment, currently over
   Beltrami and Hubbard Counties is expected to develop east along the
   warm front draped west to east across northern MN. While low-level
   inhibition is quite strong due to nocturnal stabilization of the
   near-surface, moderate to strong instability, steep lapse rates, and
   a very favorable shear parameter space will likely maintain this
   organized bowing structure for at least a couple of hours. An
   attendant risk for 75+ mph gusts will accompany this bowing segment,
   with so potential from a tornado or two near the apex. Additional
   warm advection storms developing ahead of this bow also will pose a
   risk for large hail into northeast MN.

   ..Leitman.. 06/21/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

   LAT...LON   47759533 47939456 47959338 47869263 47729206 47489182
               47179198 46939251 46889342 46909459 47039517 47119544
               47759533 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN