MD 1362 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS…SOUTHWESTERN TENNESSEE…NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 1362
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025
Areas affected...parts of central Arkansas...southwestern
Tennessee...northern Mississippi
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 190755Z - 190900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development, accompanied by potential to
produce locally strong to severe surface gusts, may continue through
daybreak across parts of the Mid South, near the Greater Memphis
vicinity.
DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorm development remains focused near
the southern to southwestern periphery of mid-level troughing,
slowly turning to the east of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley.
This may be supported by forcing for ascent downstream of a still
digging embedded smaller-scale perturbation, largely associated with
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northeastern
periphery of an increasingly suppressed, remnant plume of elevated
mixed-layer air emanating from the Great Plains.
Beneath modestly sheared, 30+ kt westerly to northwesterly
deep-layer mean flow, activity is tending to propagate southeastward
across the Mid South vicinity, aided by south to southwesterly
near-surface updraft inflow emanating from a seasonably moist
boundary beneath the steeper mid-level lapse rates across north
central Arkansas, toward western Tennessee/northwestern Mississippi.
Even with convection now largely rooted above convective outflow,
due to the high moisture content in lower/mid-levels (including
low/mid 70s surface dew points and precipitable water of 1.75-2
inches), near-surface lapse rates within the outflow, though weak,
may not be appreciably more stable than ahead of it. Perhaps aided
by the downward transfer of momentum associated with a residual
30-35 kt 850 mb jet (slowly veering from westerly to
west-northwesterly across northeastern Arkansas, western Tennessee
and northwestern Mississippi), aided by heavy precipitation loading
in downdrafts, persistent thunderstorm development may continue to
pose a risk for strong to severe surface gusts through daybreak.
..Kerr.. 06/19/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...
LAT...LON 34829084 34579036 34548963 34488902 34698836 35218815
35608890 35808954 36149070 35709163 35389167 34829084
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN