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| Mesoscale Discussion 1349 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1349 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Areas affected...northern IN...southern Lower MI...northwest OH Concerning...Tornado Watch 434... Valid 181938Z - 182145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 434 continues. SUMMARY...Northern, fast-moving portion of a QLCS should progress across the rest of northern Indiana into southern Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio through early evening. Damaging winds should be the main threat, but a tornado or two will be possible. Downstream watch issuance expected by 21Z. DISCUSSION...The northern portion of a QLCS has been steadily progressing east around 45 kts with a history of estimated to measured gusts of 55-70 mph. This fast-moving portion of the line has likely outpaced stronger low-level shear across southwest IN, per comparison of VWX and IWX VWP data. Given largely veered surface winds downstream and recent HRRR guidance, an outflow-dominated line will likely persist as it spreads into southern Lower MI and northwest OH through early evening. Damaging winds should remain the primary hazard, with a tornado or two possible in any QLCS mesovortices across northern IN. ..Grams/Hart.. 06/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT... LAT...LON 41438716 42068643 42278562 42548465 42568444 42448344 42278321 42078305 41478296 40828313 40348367 40258443 40108597 40368656 40568658 40888648 41438716 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN |
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