Mesoscale Discussion 1342 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Areas affected...parts of eastern Oklahoma into southwestern Missouri and northwestern Arkansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 431... Valid 180614Z - 180815Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 431 continues. SUMMARY...The organized cluster of storms appears to be in the process of weakening as it rapidly progresses eastward into the Ozark Plateau. However, the potential for strong to severe surface gusts may be slower to diminish, and trends are being monitored for the possibility of an additional downstream severe weather watch. DISCUSSION...At least one notable meso-beta scale cyclonic circulation is being maintained, near/east of Bartlesville, OK. Strong westerly rear inflow, in excess of 60 kts, to its south is contributing to forward propagation of the main surface cold pool in excess of 50 kt, within a westerly ambient mean flow regime on the order of 25-30 kt. At this motion, activity could spread east of the Branson MO/Harrison AR vicinities between 07-08Z. 2-hourly surface pressure change observations evident indicate that a broad and significant surface pressure perturbation is being maintained with the convective system. However, radar has indicated substantive weakening of the more intense leading convective line the last hour or so. It remains unclear if this may be due to a potential stabilizing influence on easterly updraft inflow from a smaller preceding cluster, or the gradual increase in inhibition associated with boundary-layer cooling. Based on current model output and observations, weakening convective trends probably will continue through 08-09z, but strong to severe surface gusts may be a bit slower to diminish with the residual surface cold pool. ..Kerr.. 06/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 36739448 36959429 36879306 36039271 35709330 35819452 35959447 36389444 36739448 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Category: Watches, Warnings, Advisories, & Hazards