Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1307

   Mesoscale Discussion 1307
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0730 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

   Areas affected...eastern NM into southwest TX

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 419...

   Valid 160030Z - 160200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 419
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may persist another few hours,
   mainly across eastern NM. Sporadic large hail and strong wind gusts
   remain possible across WW 419.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated severe thunderstorms continue this evening,
   mainly across east-central NM where inhibition is lowest and MLCAPE
   is maximized. Moderate northwesterly shear will likely aid in
   maintaining sporadic stronger updrafts for at least another 1-2
   hours, with hail to 1.75 inch diameter noted within the last 30-45
   minutes near De Baca County. Some clustering/consolidation of
   updrafts along merging outflow could also result in locally damaging
   gusts over the next hour. Convection should gradually weaken after
   about 02z as inhibition continues to increase with the loss of
   daytime heating. A weak low-level jet response should preclude
   development of an eastward propagating cluster downstream into parts
   of the TX Panhandle/South Plains, though some stronger convection
   could approach the east-central NM/TX border before storms weaken by
   mid-evening.

   ..Leitman.. 06/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   37010298 32120225 31080324 31000443 31350483 33530512
               36020506 37010507 37010298 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN