Mesoscale Discussion 1234 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0820 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 403... Valid 100120Z - 100245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 403 continues. SUMMARY...Upscale growth into an MCS is underway, with severe gusts becoming the main threat, though an instance of severe hail is possible. The severe threat may expand into far western TX, where a downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will probably be needed. DISCUSSION...Supercells and multicells have been growing upscale into an MCS based on recent MRMS mosaic radar imagery. KFDX radar data also shows coherent, bowing inbound velocities exceeding 50 kts under 500 m above ground level, suggesting that potentially severe gusts may become the predominant hazard over the next few hours. Large hail could still occur with the deeper storm cores. With continued upscale growth, MCS propagation should take a more rightward turn to the southeast, into western TX, along an 850 mb thermal gradient, where low-level moisture is also maximized. As such, a downstream issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will probably be needed in the next hour or two. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 34000476 34920465 35460444 35610349 35310248 34590197 33840198 33310227 33270274 33660391 34000476 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Category: Watches, Warnings, Advisories, & Hazards