SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook – June 8, 2025
Issued: 1300 UTC, June 8, 2025
Source: SPC Day 1 Outlook
Highlights
- MODERATE RISK of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening from the eastern Texas Panhandle into southern Oklahoma and northwest/north-central Texas.
- SLIGHT RISK for parts of the Mid-Atlantic region into Georgia.
Summary
A severe weather outbreak is possible across the southern Plains today. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and giant hail up to 5 inches in diameter are likely. Strong gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are also possible along portions of the East Coast.
Discussion
OK/TX:
Broad west-northwesterly flow is present today across the central/southern Plains states, with a surface cold front sagging southward across Kansas. Ahead of the front, a very moist boundary-layer air mass is in place across much of Oklahoma and Texas, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Strong daytime heating and near dry-adiabatic low/mid-level lapse rates will yield a large reservoir of extremely high CAPE values across western Oklahoma and northwest Texas.
Rapid development of intense thunderstorms will ensue by mid/late afternoon along the cold front over northwest Oklahoma and along a complex dryline structure over the eastern Texas Panhandle. Strong deep layer shear will favor supercells, despite rather weak low-level winds. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible as these storms track southeastward across western/central Oklahoma and congeal into one or more bowing segments.
The risk of widespread destructive winds will increase through the evening as the convective complex tracks into northwest and north-central Texas. The activity may remain intense as far east as northern/central Louisiana tonight.
Central/North TX early afternoon:
A cluster of strong thunderstorms is ongoing this morning between Abilene and Lubbock. Other isolated cells are forming in eastern New Mexico north of Tucumcari. Given the very unstable environment, any one of these clusters of storms could potentially persist through the day and track southeastward into parts of central Texas. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main concerns.
Mid Atlantic Region:
A shortwave trough currently over Ohio will track eastward today, with large-scale ascent overspreading the Mid-Atlantic states by afternoon. A moist surface air mass is present across much of Virginia, Maryland, North Carolina, and vicinity with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Persistent clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. However, it appears likely that storms will develop off the Blue Ridge by mid afternoon and spread eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings show sufficient low and deep layer shear for supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes.
GA/SC:
A large MCS has persisted overnight across parts of Alabama and Georgia, with a few strong storms along its leading edge. Given a few hours of daytime heating, these storms may pose a risk of damaging wind gusts as they spread eastward toward the coast.
Forecasters: Hart/Bentley
Next Outlook Scheduled: 1630Z
Read the full SPC Day 1 Outlook here.