Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1178

   Mesoscale Discussion 1178
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0131 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of southeast VA and eastern NC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 071831Z - 072100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk of strong/severe storms capable of producing
   locally damaging wind gusts should increase in the 19-22Z time
   frame. It is uncertain if the threat will warrant a watch, though
   trends are being monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Cellular convection is gradually deepening along a weak
   low-level confluence zone extending southwestward from southeastern
   VA into central NC this afternoon -- as it encounters an
   increasingly unstable air mass. While generally weak forcing for
   ascent casts uncertainty on overall convective evolution, a belt of
   30-40-kt midlevel westerly flow and moderate-strong surface-based
   instability could support a gradual uptick in convective intensity
   and organization as storms track eastward through the afternoon into
   early evening. The primary concern would be locally damaging wind
   gusts with any small, loosely organized clusters that can evolve. Is
   it unclear if the severe risk will warrant a watch, though
   convective trends are being monitored.

   ..Weinman/Thompson.. 06/07/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

   LAT...LON   36547946 37647727 37757668 37707632 37557598 37397568
               36677564 35727546 35047580 34467666 33987771 33987809
               35117998 35398014 35818011 36217984 36547946