Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1138

   Mesoscale Discussion 1138
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0916 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

   Areas affected...parts of the Texas South Plains into western North
   Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 367...

   Valid 060216Z - 060415Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 367 continues.

   SUMMARY...It is possible that a lingering supercell propagating to
   the east-southeast of the Lubbock vicinity may rapidly weaken and
   dissipate at some point within the next couple of hours.  It is not
   certain that a new severe weather watch will be required, but a
   local extension in time of the current watch may be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated supercell development has been maintained, now
   south and southeast of Lubbock, with a continuing modest
   east-southeastward propagation.  It appears that updraft inflow
   continues to emanate from a seasonably moist boundary-layer
   characterized by moderate to large CAPE.  However, at least some
   contraction in area of the stronger convection appears underway, as
   inhibition continues to increase due to both boundary-layer cooling
   and warming aloft.  At some point within the next couple of hours a
   rapid dissipation of boundary-layer based supercell development
   seems probable, but the extent to which elevated convective
   development persists to its north, across parts of the southern
   Texas Panhandle into western North Texas, remains unclear.

   ..Kerr.. 06/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   33910220 34290143 34470030 34019823 33389818 33009879
               32809942 32750014 33070130 33280173 33910220 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN