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Mesoscale Discussion 1075 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1075 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Areas affected...eastern Colorado and western Kansas into far southwest Nebraska. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 021947Z - 022115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon with a primary threat of severe wind gusts. DISCUSSION...A gradient of instability exists across the central High Plains with dewpoints in the 40s near the Front Range and in the upper 60s across southwest Kansas. SPC mesoanalysis shows a weakly unstable, but uncapped environment across southeast Colorado where cold air associated with the upper low has started to move east of the terrain. As heating continues and temperatures continue to cool aloft, expect an uncapped environment across much of eastern Colorado and western Kansas. In addition, ascent will increase as the trough advances east. Therefore, expect a gradual increase in convective coverage across northeast New Mexico and eastern Colorado this afternoon. Eventually, these storms should become more intense as they move toward greater instability. Some large hail is possible initially, however, severe wind gusts will be preferred. Very steep lapse rates will support the potential for some significant severe wind gusts of 80-90 mph this evening (in western Kansas), particularly where any bowing line segments can develop. A watch will likely be needed later this afternoon for the threat from these storms, and storms which will likely move into southwest Kansas from watch 353. ..Bentley/Smith.. 06/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU... ABQ... LAT...LON 36950309 37380342 39160386 40350333 40390148 39990008 37619982 36979990 36950309 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN |
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