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| Mesoscale Discussion 1075 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1075
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025
Areas affected...eastern Colorado and western Kansas into far
southwest Nebraska.
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 021947Z - 022115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon with a primary
threat of severe wind gusts.
DISCUSSION...A gradient of instability exists across the central
High Plains with dewpoints in the 40s near the Front Range and in
the upper 60s across southwest Kansas. SPC mesoanalysis shows a
weakly unstable, but uncapped environment across southeast Colorado
where cold air associated with the upper low has started to move
east of the terrain. As heating continues and temperatures continue
to cool aloft, expect an uncapped environment across much of eastern
Colorado and western Kansas. In addition, ascent will increase as
the trough advances east.
Therefore, expect a gradual increase in convective coverage across
northeast New Mexico and eastern Colorado this afternoon.
Eventually, these storms should become more intense as they move
toward greater instability. Some large hail is possible initially,
however, severe wind gusts will be preferred. Very steep lapse rates
will support the potential for some significant severe wind gusts of
80-90 mph this evening (in western Kansas), particularly where any
bowing line segments can develop.
A watch will likely be needed later this afternoon for the threat
from these storms, and storms which will likely move into southwest
Kansas from watch 353.
..Bentley/Smith.. 06/02/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...
ABQ...
LAT...LON 36950309 37380342 39160386 40350333 40390148 39990008
37619982 36979990 36950309
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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