Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1061

   Mesoscale Discussion 1061
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1250 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 011750Z - 012015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A gradual increase in thunderstorm development is expected
   over the next few hours. The primary concerns will be large hail and
   severe wind gusts. A watch should eventually be needed this
   afternoon, though timing is uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a convectively augmented
   quasi-stationary boundary extending southeastward across parts of
   north-central TX. Continued diurnal heating amid fully modified Gulf
   moisture (lower 70s dewpoints) will continue to erode antecedent
   inhibition sampled by the earlier 12Z FWD sounding. This, along with
   cooling temperatures aloft accompanying a glancing midlevel wave,
   will yield strong surface-based instability along/south of the
   boundary. Generally weak large-scale ascent and some lingering
   inhibition cast uncertainty on timing of thunderstorm development
   (outside of an isolated/ongoing storm along the boundary). However,
   current thinking is that a gradual increase in development will
   occur along the boundary and possibly southward along the eastern
   edge of the steeper low-level lapse rates during the next several
   hours. 

   An initially cellular mode amid long/generally straight hodographs
   (around 40 kt of effective shear) and the strong buoyancy should
   favor large hail with maturing supercell structures. With time,
   there may be a tendency for localized upscale growth into clusters,
   with a corresponding increase in severe-gust potential. While
   uncertain on timing, a watch will likely be needed for parts of the
   area this afternoon.

   ..Weinman/Guyer.. 06/01/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32369622 32809687 32869724 32879774 32759798 32479813
               32099817 31629802 31179769 30879737 30689675 30749620
               31059574 31329553 31739553 31989565 32369622 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN