|
Mesoscale Discussion 1061 | |
|
|
Mesoscale Discussion 1061 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 011750Z - 012015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A gradual increase in thunderstorm development is expected over the next few hours. The primary concerns will be large hail and severe wind gusts. A watch should eventually be needed this afternoon, though timing is uncertain. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a convectively augmented quasi-stationary boundary extending southeastward across parts of north-central TX. Continued diurnal heating amid fully modified Gulf moisture (lower 70s dewpoints) will continue to erode antecedent inhibition sampled by the earlier 12Z FWD sounding. This, along with cooling temperatures aloft accompanying a glancing midlevel wave, will yield strong surface-based instability along/south of the boundary. Generally weak large-scale ascent and some lingering inhibition cast uncertainty on timing of thunderstorm development (outside of an isolated/ongoing storm along the boundary). However, current thinking is that a gradual increase in development will occur along the boundary and possibly southward along the eastern edge of the steeper low-level lapse rates during the next several hours. An initially cellular mode amid long/generally straight hodographs (around 40 kt of effective shear) and the strong buoyancy should favor large hail with maturing supercell structures. With time, there may be a tendency for localized upscale growth into clusters, with a corresponding increase in severe-gust potential. While uncertain on timing, a watch will likely be needed for parts of the area this afternoon. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 06/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 32369622 32809687 32869724 32879774 32759798 32479813 32099817 31629802 31179769 30879737 30689675 30749620 31059574 31329553 31739553 31989565 32369622 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN |
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home |