Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1018

   Mesoscale Discussion 1018
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0957 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

   Areas affected...portions of eastern New Mexico into southwestern
   Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 338...

   Valid 280257Z - 280500Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 338
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW338.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery and reports indicate that storms
   southeast of Midland, TX have been producing winds 60-65 mph. Storm
   interaction and colliding outflow likely aided in the
   intensification of these storms. It remains unclear how much of
   threat will extend past watch expiration at 04z. Loss of heating,
   weak flow,  and increasing MLCIN may limit the longevity of this
   activity. A local extension or additional watch issuance may be
   needed.

   Further west, a line of thunderstorms is moving southeast out of New
   Mexico. This line has a history of gusts up to 60 mph and penny size
   hail. Though forward progress is slow, the environment ahead of this
   activity remains warm and unstable (MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg)
   which may allow it to continue to remain severe. WW338 may need to
   be extended in time should this threat persist through 04z.

   ..Thornton.. 05/28/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   32760294 33140366 33000430 32410467 31820462 31170352
               30910288 30450081 30370028 30469975 30859954 31179961
               31729986 32760294 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN