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Mesoscale Discussion 1018 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1018 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern New Mexico into southwestern Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 338... Valid 280257Z - 280500Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 338 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW338. DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery and reports indicate that storms southeast of Midland, TX have been producing winds 60-65 mph. Storm interaction and colliding outflow likely aided in the intensification of these storms. It remains unclear how much of threat will extend past watch expiration at 04z. Loss of heating, weak flow, and increasing MLCIN may limit the longevity of this activity. A local extension or additional watch issuance may be needed. Further west, a line of thunderstorms is moving southeast out of New Mexico. This line has a history of gusts up to 60 mph and penny size hail. Though forward progress is slow, the environment ahead of this activity remains warm and unstable (MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg) which may allow it to continue to remain severe. WW338 may need to be extended in time should this threat persist through 04z. ..Thornton.. 05/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 32760294 33140366 33000430 32410467 31820462 31170352 30910288 30450081 30370028 30469975 30859954 31179961 31729986 32760294 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN |
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