Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1012

   Mesoscale Discussion 1012
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0444 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

   Areas affected...central Gulf Coast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 272144Z - 272315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail with initial cells should transition
   to mainly damaging wind potential with sporadic strong to localized
   severe gusts. A severe thunderstorm watch issuance is being
   considered.

   DISCUSSION...Increasing convective development has occurred across
   mainly south MS trailing a bit into far eastern LA, in association
   with a remnant MCV drifting east. Amid weak mid-level lapse rates,
   substantial boundary-layer heating has occurred across this region,
   but remains more muted eastward into AL in the wake of an MCS now in
   GA. Still, late-day insolation will help boost temperatures over
   southwest AL and could sustained a lower-end, but persistent severe
   threat over the next several hours. Moderate speed shear within a
   nearly unidirectional west-southwesterly wind profile will foster
   hail production in initial discrete to semi-discrete cells. The
   aforementioned weak lapse rates and warm thermodynamic profiles will
   likely temper hail magnitudes, but severe sizes are possible.
   Afternoon model guidance suggests potential for upscale growth into
   an organized cluster/small MCS to the east-southeast. Given the
   moist boundary layer, this should yield sporadic strong to localized
   severe gusts and an attendant damaging wind threat.

   ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/27/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   32058927 32168869 32088805 31888771 31598735 30998716
               30508727 29968886 30048946 30379015 30879031 31588982
               32058927 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN