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Mesoscale Discussion 978 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0978 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Areas affected...southwestern Oklahoma...northern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 252327Z - 260130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe threat to continue downstream through the evening. DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells is ongoing across portions of the Texas Panhandle this evening. Guidance suggests eventual upscale growth is possible, with an MCS continuing downstream through the evening across southern Oklahoma/north-central Texas. A very moist and unstable environment with steep low to mid-level lapse rates ahead of this cluster would favor a downstream wind threat. However, strong shear profiles and a strengthening low-level jet could support embedded supercells with a continuing threat for both wind and tornadoes. As such, the trends in thunderstorm mode will need to be monitored but a downstream watch is likely to be needed in the next couple of hours. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 05/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 35279757 34699693 34449627 34079578 33819571 33539562 33249570 33069613 32929712 32909769 32919816 32999859 33279900 33759925 34349952 34919997 35209991 35479964 35649922 35689845 35699800 35279757 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN |
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