Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 978











Mesoscale Discussion 978
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0978
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0627 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

   Areas affected...southwestern Oklahoma...northern Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 252327Z - 260130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe threat to continue downstream through the evening.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells is ongoing across portions of
   the Texas Panhandle this evening. Guidance suggests eventual upscale
   growth is possible, with an MCS continuing downstream through the
   evening across southern Oklahoma/north-central Texas. A very moist
   and unstable environment with steep low to mid-level lapse rates
   ahead of this cluster would favor a downstream wind threat. However,
   strong shear profiles and a strengthening low-level jet could
   support embedded supercells with a continuing threat for both wind
   and tornadoes. As such, the trends in thunderstorm mode will need to
   be monitored but a downstream watch is likely to be needed in the
   next couple of hours.

   ..Thornton/Mosier.. 05/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   35279757 34699693 34449627 34079578 33819571 33539562
               33249570 33069613 32929712 32909769 32919816 32999859
               33279900 33759925 34349952 34919997 35209991 35479964
               35649922 35689845 35699800 35279757 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


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