|
Mesoscale Discussion 968 | |
Next MD > | |
|
|
Mesoscale Discussion 0968 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Areas affected...west-central into south-central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 251838Z - 252015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered storm development is possible this afternoon with an attendant severe risk. Convective trends will be monitored for a possible Watch. DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery trends during the past hour have shown a swelling cumulus field in the vicinity of a wind shift and frontal zone draped generally west to east across south-central and central OK. A very moist and destabilizing airmass is over south-central OK where surface dewpoints are in the 74-76 deg F range. Heating of this moist/unstable airmass is resulting in 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE with eroding convective inhibition. Although a flattened mid-level ridge is located over OK, 30-35 kt west-southwesterly flow in the 4-6 km layer, per KTLX VAD data, coupled with weak east-southeast flow at the surface, is contributing to sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells. Although this convective scenario/setup is largely mesoscale dependent and void of stronger large-scale ascent, isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon. Large to very large hail could accompany the stronger updrafts. A tornado cannot be ruled out before clustering of storms eventually occurs towards evening. Severe gusts will become the primary hazard later this evening, in addition to some lingering hail/low tornado risk. ..Smith/Guyer.. 05/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 35959747 35579678 35169585 34659568 34309578 34229636 34329732 34299796 34159866 34529927 35149931 35719900 36059788 35959747 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN |
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home |