Mesoscale Discussion 0958
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0516 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025
Areas affected...Parts of west TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 242216Z - 242345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible into this evening,
with potential for localized severe gusts and hail.
DISCUSSION...High-based storm development is underway across parts
of the TX Trans-Pecos and Big Bend regions, within a hot and
well-mixed environment. WV imagery suggests that a weak shortwave
trough is moving across southeast NM and west TX, which may aid in
additional storm development into the early evening.
Within the high-based regime into parts of the Permian Basin and
South Plains, where dewpoints are in the 40s-50s F and temperatures
have generally increased above 100 F south of a quasi-stationary
front, MLCAPE has increased into the 500-1500 J/kg range. Deep-layer
flow/shear is generally weak, but at least transient vigorous storms
are possible, with a threat of localized downbursts and perhaps some
hail.
Farther northeast into parts of the Big Country and northwest TX,
MLCAPE has increased above 2000 J/kg along/ahead of a diffuse
moisture gradient/dryline, with dewpoints increasing through the 60s
F. Some building cumulus is noted from northwest of San Angelo to
southeast of Childress, and isolated storm development is possible
within this region into this evening. Somewhat backed low-level flow
east of the diffuse dryline will support relatively stronger
deep-layer shear, with some potential for organized multicells and
perhaps a supercell or two if deep convection can mature in this
region. Large hail and isolated severe gusts would be the most
likely hazards within this regime, though a tornado cannot be ruled
out if any supercell can persist into the increasingly moist
environment east of the diffuse dryline this evening.
..Dean/Mosier.. 05/24/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 29350386 33100241 33250241 33530249 33770268 34040259
34320093 33969979 33609981 33129985 31680055 30100164
29750188 29070295 28910332 29350386
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Category: Watches, Warnings, Advisories, & Hazards