Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 952

   Mesoscale Discussion 0952
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0116 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

   Areas affected...far southern AR...northern LA...central MS and
   west-central AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 241816Z - 241945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The ongoing MCS over parts of the ArkLaTex may intensify
   and spread eastward. Additional storms may also pose a risk for
   damaging winds and hail. A new WW is possible, though timing is
   uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Along the eastern edge of WW316, a linear cluster of
   thunderstorms across far southern AR near the LA border has begun to
   interact with more unstable air south of a roughly east-west
   oriented baroclinic zone. Along and south of the boundary, mid 80s F
   temperatures and robust surface moisture were contributing to
   2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE. As the cold pool interacts with this air
   mass, some re-intensification of the ongoing storms is expected.
   Additional development has also been noted along a preceding
   confluence line across northern LA and along the boundary itself
   across MS and AL. While there remains some uncertainty on the
   evolution of these individual features, the general environment and
   observation trends suggest one or more clusters/lines of storms
   should emerge and spread eastward along the boundary this afternoon.
   Given the degree of instability and moderate deep-layer flow aloft,
   damaging winds appear probable with any deeper cold pools/forward
   propagating clusters that develop and maintain themselves. Some
   isolated hail may also occur with relatively steep mid-level lapse
   rates and large buoyancy. Convective trends will continue to be
   monitored, but a weather watch appears possible this afternoon.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   31858782 32838709 33798750 33999048 33959062 33539099
               33199352 32219365 31288946 31858782 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN