|
Mesoscale Discussion 950 | |
|
|
Mesoscale Discussion 0950 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0836 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025 Areas affected...southeastern Oklahoma...the ArkLaTex and western Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 241336Z - 241430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The MCS across eastern OK has shown a general downscaling trend early this morning. However, recent strong surface gusts with the stronger embedded cores suggests some potential for re-intensification this morning. A downstream WW is being considered. DISCUSSION...As of 1325 UTC, regional radar analysis depicted several clusters of strong to severe storms ongoing from eastern OK into central AR. Within the broader OK MCS, warming cloud tops and a general downscaling trend have been noted with some of the segments. However, several stronger embedded cores have maintained their intensity and could intensify further as they move east/southeastward towards the ArklaTex this morning. Recent observed gust to 57 kts and reports of damage in and around KMLC support this trend. The environment downstream of these cores is supportive of a continued damaging wind risk with With ~2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear from SPC mesoanalyis. The current expectation is that these stronger storms will continue east/southeastward along the baroclinic zone with a risk for damaging gusts. Additional convective development is also possible this morning along and ahead of this cluster with weak low-level warm advection along the buoyancy/thermal gradient across central AR and the lower MS Valley. While the evolution of these storms is uncertain owing to weaker buoyancy farther north, they may persist and merge with the broader cluster over OK, or develop into an additional complex and spread east/southeast into the lower MS Valley. With sufficient buoyancy and shear for organization, some damaging wind risk would likely evolve. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for a downstream weather watch. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 35629442 34689551 33769578 32879493 32439157 33459061 34739058 35199225 35629442 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN |
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home |