Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 950

   Mesoscale Discussion 0950
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0836 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

   Areas affected...southeastern Oklahoma...the ArkLaTex and western
   Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 241336Z - 241430Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The MCS across eastern OK has shown a general downscaling
   trend early this morning. However, recent strong surface gusts with
   the stronger embedded cores suggests some potential for
   re-intensification this morning. A downstream WW is being
   considered.

   DISCUSSION...As of 1325 UTC, regional radar analysis depicted
   several clusters of strong to severe storms ongoing from eastern OK
   into central AR. Within the broader OK MCS, warming cloud tops and a
   general downscaling trend have been noted with some of the segments.
   However, several stronger embedded cores have maintained their
   intensity and could intensify further as they move
   east/southeastward towards the ArklaTex this morning. Recent
   observed gust to 57 kts and reports of damage in and around KMLC
   support this trend. The environment downstream of these cores is
   supportive of a continued damaging wind risk with With ~2000 J/kg of
   MUCAPE and 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear from SPC mesoanalyis. The
   current expectation is that these stronger storms will continue
   east/southeastward along the baroclinic zone with a risk for
   damaging gusts.

   Additional convective development is also possible this morning
   along and ahead of this cluster with weak low-level warm advection
   along the buoyancy/thermal gradient across central AR and the lower
   MS Valley. While the evolution of these storms is uncertain owing to
   weaker buoyancy farther north, they may persist and merge with the
   broader cluster over OK, or develop into an additional complex and
   spread east/southeast into the lower MS Valley. With sufficient
   buoyancy and shear for organization, some damaging wind risk would
   likely evolve. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for a
   downstream weather watch.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35629442 34689551 33769578 32879493 32439157 33459061
               34739058 35199225 35629442 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN