Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 945











Mesoscale Discussion 945
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0945
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0954 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

   Areas affected...western and central KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 240254Z - 240500Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms should develop during the next few
   hours across parts of western to central Kansas. Large hail will be
   the primary initial hazard, with potential for severe gusts as
   upscale growth occurs along the southern flank. Severe thunderstorm
   watch issuance appears likely.

   DISCUSSION...The initial stages of elevated convective development
   appear to be underway over west-central KS. This elevated activity
   should develop within a northwest/southeast orientation along the
   buoyancy gradient. A very pronounced EML with mid-level lapse rates
   of 9-9.5 C/km will hold to the southwest of the convective plume,
   aiding in downstream large hail potential. The convective mode
   should quickly evolve into clusters given orientation of large-scale
   ascent relative to the slightly north of west mid/upper-level wind
   profile. While most 00Z CAM guidance is suggestive of a hail-only
   severe threat, the HRRR and RRFS continue to indicate potential for
   a forward-propagating MCS and bowing structures which would yield a
   severe wind threat in the early morning towards south-central KS.

   ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   38240065 37739982 36949816 37079765 37379737 37739739
               38179769 38789856 39009907 39099972 39000042 38750075
               38510087 38240065 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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