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| Mesoscale Discussion 942 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0942 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0509 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Areas affected...eastern CO and western NE/KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 313... Valid 232209Z - 240015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 313 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to increase substantially into early evening across the central High Plains. Very large hail to around baseball size, a tornado or two, and localized severe gusts are possible. DISCUSSION...A trio of sustained supercell corridors is anticipated through early evening across the central High Plains. The first and northernmost is underway over the southwest NE Panhandle/northeast Colorado border area. With smaller surface temperature-dew point spreads, this corridor will have the best chance at producing a tornado or two through 01-02Z, especially with any right-mover in northeast CO. A separate sustained supercell should evolve off the Palmer Divide in east-central CO and eventually spread into west-central KS. The southernmost and later developing convection should occur along the southeast CO/southwest KS border and may eventually shift east-southeast. With a stout EML yielding increasing MLCIN with eastern extent, it is likely that only a few supercells will be sustained. But the very steep mid-level lapse rates (near 9 C/km) and 45-50 kt effective shear will support intense mid-level rotation with very large hail as the primary hazard. ..Grams.. 05/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41320365 41640362 41980339 42150259 41880201 40710153 39130132 37590121 37040119 36900163 37120242 37460238 38200265 39100326 40270324 40820349 41320365 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN |
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