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Mesoscale Discussion 932 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0932 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025 Areas affected...parts of the Texas South Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 221924Z - 222130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development, perhaps including an evolving supercell or two, appears possible through 3-5 PM CDT, accompanied by a risk for large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Daytime heating and deep-boundary layer mixing focused along the dryline across the Texas South Plains is contributing to weakening inhibition as far north as a diffuse surface front extending near/south of Childress toward the Lubbock vicinity. This is coinciding with deepening convective development, which seems likely to persist, particularly where low-level convergence is strongest near the boundary intersection. Although beneath more modest northwesterly mid-level flow/deep-layer shear than closer to the Red River, as updrafts acquire increasing inflow of air characterized by mixed-layer CAPE as high as 2000-3000 J/kg, isolated supercell development posing a risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts appear possible. ..Kerr/Guyer.. 05/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 32840099 33290179 33730170 34330120 34080030 33969958 32840099 MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN |
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