|
Mesoscale Discussion 925 | |
|
|
Mesoscale Discussion 0925 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0553 PM CDT Wed May 21 2025 Areas affected...Deep South TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 212253Z - 220100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple slow-moving storms may become sustained across a part of Deep South Texas, with an accompanying threat of large hail and localized severe gusts. DISCUSSION...Incipient convective development appears to be underway over Zapata and Jim Hogg counties, along an earlier differential heating corridor that is now covered by a cirrus canopy from nearly stationary thunderstorms over Nuevo Leon. With weak winds in the lowest 4 km per forecast soundings and CRP VWP data, along with nebulous large-scale ascent, sustaining organized updrafts is uncertain. Adequate speed shear does exist in the upper portion of a very large buoyancy profile. With already sustained convection over Nuevo Leon unlikely to spread across the border in the next few hours, the severe threat in Deep South TX will probably remain localized through at least mid-evening. Still, any sustained convection will pose a threat for large hail and downbursts given the degree of instability. ..Grams/Hart.. 05/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... LAT...LON 26859937 27269917 27409866 27389839 27249826 27059806 26499784 25979818 26429916 26859937 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN |
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home |