Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 903

   Mesoscale Discussion 0903
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1234 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

   Areas affected...Eastern Arkansas into western Tennessee and
   northwest Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 201734Z - 201930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated in the coming
   hours across central to eastern Arkansas. Storms will intensify as
   they spread east towards the MS River, and will pose a threat for
   all hazards. Watch issuance is expected as initiation becomes
   imminent.

   DISCUSSION...GOES imagery shows slow vertical development of
   agitated cumulus along and ahead of a cold front across southern to
   central AR with at least one deeper convective tower exhibiting
   occasional lightning. This comes amid steady destabilization of a
   residual cold pool ahead of the front where temperatures are warming
   into the upper 70s and low 80s and MLCAPE climbs into the 2000-2500
   J/kg range. Gradual elimination of lingering inhibition will likely
   lead to steady growth/intensification of convection through
   mid-afternoon. A 60-65 knot mid-level jet will promote storm
   organization, though it remains somewhat unclear exactly when
   convection will become sufficiently deep to realize the sheared
   environment and pose a severe threat. However, by late afternoon
   thunderstorms will likely reach sufficient intensity and
   organization to produce severe winds, large hail and tornadoes
   (including the potential for 2-3 inch hail, and strong tornadoes
   with more discrete cells). Latest guidance suggests this is most
   probable along the MS River across eastern AR into adjacent portions
   of TN and northwest MS. Watch issuance is expected as soon as
   convection begins to show signs of steady deepening/intensification.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 05/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33429278 35909202 36259188 36469136 36488932 36328912
               35908912 35588913 33678984 33319001 33169021 33029065
               33039272 33159279 33429278 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN