Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 875


   Mesoscale Discussion 0875
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1112 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

   Areas affected...central Oklahoma into south central Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 191612Z - 191845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A few rapidly developing and intensifying supercells
   appear possible as early as 1-3 PM CDT, accompanied by a risk for
   large to giant hail and a strong tornado or two.

   DISCUSSION...Convergence along the dryline appears at least
   initially weak, and it is not clear how much this will change as it
   gradually mixes eastward toward the Interstate 35 corridor through
   18-20Z.  However, deepening convection is evident to the south and
   southeast of Chickasha OK, which appears rooted within a corridor of
   stronger warm advection around the 850 mb level.

   It appears that this may persist and perhaps develop northward into
   early/mid afternoon, along the western periphery of a 30-40 kt
   southerly 850 mb jet.  At the same time, it appears that at least
   modest mid-level height falls will begin to overspread the I-35
   corridor, coincident with continuing insolation and warming of a
   seasonably moist boundary layer.  A corridor along and east of the
   dryline is forecast to become characterized by large CAPE on the
   order of 2000-4000+ J/kg.

   As the initially elevated convection begins to acquire increasing
   updraft inflow emanating from the unstable boundary-layer, and
   inhibition weakens, rapid thunderstorm intensification appears
   possible.  In the presence of west-southwesterly deep-layer shear,
   this probably will include at least a couple of evolving supercells
   with potential to produce large to giant hail, along with a risk for
   a strong tornado.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 05/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36709756 37379681 37459587 36529514 35419585 34209680
               33899724 34159790 35359788 36709756 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN

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