Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 852


   Mesoscale Discussion 0852
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0423 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

   Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 180923Z - 181030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms will move out of existing Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch #283. Conditions are being monitored to determine
   if a small downstream watch is needed.

   DISCUSSION...The ongoing MCS across eastern Oklahoma is moving
   east-southeast along an instability gradient stretching from
   northwest Oklahoma into southeast Arkansas. Recent Oklahoma Mesonet
   peak gusts have reported 58 mph gust in Webbers Falls, OK, and 55
   mph gust in Sallisaw, OK, which are slightly down from upstream wind
   measurements. 

   Despite the recent downward trend in measured wind, the MCS is well
   developed and organized, has access to more than sufficient
   instability, and deep-layer shear around 50 knots. The thunderstorms
   are approaching the eastern edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #283
   so trends continue to be assessed to determine if a small,
   downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be necessary over parts of
   Arkansas.

   ..Marsh/Smith.. 05/18/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA...

   LAT...LON   34989586 36099501 34839056 33839137 34989586 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

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