Mesoscale Discussion 0852 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 180923Z - 181030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms will move out of existing Severe Thunderstorm Watch #283. Conditions are being monitored to determine if a small downstream watch is needed. DISCUSSION...The ongoing MCS across eastern Oklahoma is moving east-southeast along an instability gradient stretching from northwest Oklahoma into southeast Arkansas. Recent Oklahoma Mesonet peak gusts have reported 58 mph gust in Webbers Falls, OK, and 55 mph gust in Sallisaw, OK, which are slightly down from upstream wind measurements. Despite the recent downward trend in measured wind, the MCS is well developed and organized, has access to more than sufficient instability, and deep-layer shear around 50 knots. The thunderstorms are approaching the eastern edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #283 so trends continue to be assessed to determine if a small, downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be necessary over parts of Arkansas. ..Marsh/Smith.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA... LAT...LON 34989586 36099501 34839056 33839137 34989586 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Category: Watches, Warnings, Advisories, & Hazards