Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 849

   Mesoscale Discussion 0849
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

   Areas affected...Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 283...

   Valid 180430Z - 180630Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 283
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue across much of
   Oklahoma for several more hours. Very large hail, wind damage and an
   isolated tornado threat will be possible.

   DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar data from KTLX shows
   three areas of somewhat widely spaced severe storms. The most
   intense convection is located in western Oklahoma, along the eastern
   edge of a bullseye of moderate instability. The RAP has MLCAPE
   estimated in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range, which appears to be
   related to a localized maximum in surface dewpoints. The storms are
   being supported by increasing low-level warm advection and to subtle
   perturbations within within west-southwesterly flow. The storms will
   continue to move eastward across central and eastern Oklahoma during
   the early overnight period. Regional WSR-88D VWPs at Oklahoma City
   and Tulsa have 0-6 km shear of 52 kt and 42 kt, respectively. The
   RAP is showing mid-level lapse rates above 8 C/km across much of
   central Oklahoma. This will support supercells with large hail. The
   most intense storms could also produce hailstones greater than 2
   inches in diameter. An isolated wind-damage and tornado threat may
   also accompany the stronger storms.

   ..Broyles.. 05/18/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34579644 34599806 34869881 35709901 36369836 36299590
               35559537 34849571 34579644 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN