Mesoscale Discussion 0833 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Areas affected...northern Georgia northeast into southern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 170718Z - 170845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A long-lived thunderstorm complex continues to move south and east this morning. Strong thunderstorm winds, hail, and a tornado or two remain possible with the strongest thunderstorm cores. A new watch or watches may be needed downstream from existing watches. DISCUSSION...A long-lived linear MCS continues to move south and east this morning across the region with more isolated/cellular convection develop ahead of the line. This line has a history of producing wind damage across portions of east Tennessee. The portion of the line across Tennessee, Virginia, and North Carolina appears to be moving through a minimum in favorability for severe thunderstorms. Here MUCAPE is only about 1000 J/KG, although deep-layer shear remains more than sufficient at greater than 50 knots. Ahead of this portion of the line, the environment actually improves to the east as MUCAPE increases to nearly 2500 J/kg across central Virginia. Given the increasingly favorable-for-severe environment downstream of the existing line, a new watch may become necessary across western North Carolina and southern Virginia. Farther southwest, more uncertainty for severe potential exists. Convective cells have become oriented more parallel to the large-scale shear vectors. This has resulted in less downward momentum transfer and slowed the advancement of the line. As the multitude of individual cells within the linear MCS continue to interfere with one another, robust thunderstorm updrafts capable of producing large hail and damaging winds has been limited. Despite this, the overall large-scale environment will remain conducive for episodic severe potential and thus the area will also be monitored for watch potential. ..Marsh/Bunting.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC... LAT...LON 37268118 37147926 36238050 34918282 34318520 35528546 36368286 37268118 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Category: Watches, Warnings, Advisories, & Hazards