MD 0772 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NC
Mesoscale Discussion 0772
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025
Areas affected...Parts of eastern NC
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 130640Z - 130915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Some localized brief-tornado and wind-damage threat may
persist overnight.
DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of convection are ongoing from
northeast SC into eastern NC early this morning. This activity will
continue to be aided by a shortwave trough that is moving
northeastward around the periphery of a persistent mid/upper-level
cyclone centered over parts of the Mid-South/TN Valley. Rather
strong low-level flow (with 35-45 kt at 1-2 km AGL per recent
objective analyses and VWPs from KLTX, KRAX, and KMHX) will continue
to enlarge hodographs, with effective SRH of 150-200 m2/s2.
Weak lapse rates/buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear will continue
to be a general limiting factor for severe potential. However, given
the relatively favorable low-level wind profiles, MLCAPE approaching
500 J/kg within a moist environment could support occasional
transient supercell structures, with some localized brief-tornado
and wind-damage potential through the overnight.
..Dean/Bunting.. 05/13/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 34747913 35397896 35627843 36097715 35907608 35237551
34907589 34397669 34067719 33887752 33547815 33747851
33997880 34747913
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH