Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 770

   Mesoscale Discussion 0770
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0823 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

   Areas affected...eastern Montana into western North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246...

   Valid 120123Z - 120300Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe wind threat continues across eastern Montana and
   western North Dakota.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has developed across eastern
   Montana with echo tops over 40kft. Thus far, this cluster has moved
   through a data sparse region and no severe wind gusts have been
   reported. However, given the intensity of the convection and other
   storms in the region reporting severe wind gusts with less intense
   signatures, expect it may be currently producing severe wind gusts.
   As it moves north/east, expect the severe wind threat to continue,
   given the hot, well-mixed environment downstream. The eastern extent
   of this threat remains questionable as nocturnal cooling should
   weaken instability and thus the convection this evening. However,
   the HRRR suggests a strong enough cold pool may develop to maintain
   some severe threat through 05Z. If this occurs, the threat could
   eventually move east of watch 246. If this occurs a local extension
   may eventually be necessary. Trends will be monitored for this
   potential through the evening.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 05/12/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   46310557 47340551 47930406 47940246 46930215 46040204
               45560389 45500523 46310557 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH