Mesoscale Discussion 0762
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025
Areas affected...parts of south-central GA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 102347Z - 110145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A cluster of strong to severe storms, including a few more
organized supercells, may pose a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a
tornado or two for a few hours this evening. A greater severe risk
requiring WW issuance is not anticipated, though trends will
continue to be monitored.
DISCUSSION...As of 2340 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery
showed a cluster of somewhat better organized convection has evolved
near a partially modified stationary front over parts of
south-central GA. Downstream of the broad upper low over the
northern Gulf, weak ascent and inland moisture advection will likely
continue to support strong to severe storms in this zone this
evening. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s F, are supporting around
1000 J/kg of MLCAPE amidst 30+ kt of mid-level flow from the KJGX
VAD. With backed low-level winds long the boundary, shear is
favorable for storm organization into clusters and supercell
structures. Damaging winds are the most likely threat given
relatively saturated low-levels and modest mid-level lapse rates.
However, hail will be possible with the deeper storms. A tornado or
two may also occur with enhanced SRH and backed-low level flow,
especially near and along the frontal zone.
While some storm organization is likely for a few hours this
evening, the lack of broader ascent/destabilization suggests the
threat will be confined both temporarily and spatial near the front.
A WW is not currently anticipated, though conditions will continue
to be monitored for changes.
..Lyons/Hart.. 05/10/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 31908456 32518405 32958281 32778229 32418209 32048229
31868267 31728339 31648407 31908456
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Category: Watches, Warnings, Advisories, & Hazards