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| Mesoscale Discussion 712 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0712 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0611 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...South-central into east-central TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230... Valid 061111Z - 061415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230 continues. SUMMARY...An increase in the tornado threat is expected with time this morning. Tornado Watch issuance is likely later this morning, though timing is uncertain. DISCUSSION...Some increase in convection has recently been noted across parts of the TX Hill Country, in close proximity to a surface warm front that is expected to lift northward through the morning across parts of south-central into east-central TX. Favorable deep-layer shear and low-level SRH (as noted on the KEWX VWP) will result in supercell potential through the morning, especially as the warm front moves northward and rich low-level moisture continues to support moderate to locally strong buoyancy. Timing of additional supercell development and maturation within the warm-advection regime remains somewhat uncertain, as does the potential influence of an ongoing eastward-moving storm cluster near San Angelo. However, as the threat for surface-based supercells increases, a corresponding increase in the tornado threat is expected with time this morning, in addition to potential for large hail and locally damaging winds. A Tornado Watch will likely be needed later this morning, though timing is uncertain. ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30109969 30469938 31789706 31789594 31279547 30499537 30219581 29779648 29509720 29339823 29329926 30109969 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN |
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