Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 706

   Mesoscale Discussion 0706
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0615 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025

   Areas affected...parts of swrn TX and adjacent sern NM

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 227...

   Valid 052315Z - 060115Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 227 continues.

   SUMMARY...Intensifying supercells possible, initially posing a risk
   for large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter, then increasing
   potential for a couple of tornadoes, by 8-9 PM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer moisture across the Pecos Valley remains
   largely characterized by relatively modest surface dew points in the
   middle 50s F, including an ongoing westward surge across and
   west/northwest of Fort Stockton.  In the presence of very steep
   lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, this appears to be contributing
   to rapid destabilization, including CAPE increasing in excess of
   2000 J/kg through this evening, east through north of the Davis
   Mountains into areas south of Hobbs NM.

   Beneath strong difluent mid/upper flow, to the east of a slow moving
   low over Arizona, deepening convective development is ongoing in the
   more strongly heated and deeply mixed environment to the west of the
   dryline.  As this activity begins to acquire inflow of the more
   moist and increasingly unstable boundary-layer air, there appears
   potential for rapid intensification during the next few hours.

   The intersection of the dryline and a stalled frontal zone near/east
   of Wink may provide one focus for intensifying storms.  As
   strengthening southeasterly low-level flow contributes to enlarged,
   clockwise curved low-level hodograghs beneath seasonably strong
   southerly mid/upper flow, this may include a supercell or two
   accompanied by increasing risk for a tornado, possibly strong.

   ..Kerr.. 05/05/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32410333 31810215 31360183 30560242 30580287 30850303
               31320354 32410333 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN