Mesoscale Discussion 0685 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0555 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Areas affected...much of sern NM into swrn TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222... Valid 042255Z - 050100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe hail, and perhaps a few strong surface gusts, may continue into the 7-8 PM MDT time frame, before diminishing. It appears unlikely that a new severe weather watch will be needed. DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer moisture characterized by surface dew points near or just above 50F remains confined to a narrow corridor to the lee of the Davis, Guadalupe and Sacramento Mountains, where 2-hourly surface pressure falls in excess of 2 mb have been observed the past couple of hours. This has contributed to gusty southeasterly surface winds beneath flow that veers with height to 30-40 kt southwesterly around 500 mb. While the digging mid/upper low has become quasi-stationary across the Southwest, strongly difluent downstream flow is focused to the lee of the southern Rockies, aiding scattered ongoing strong discrete thunderstorm development. It appears that convection, in general, may gradually begin to shift away from the higher terrain with a weak mid-level impulse, toward the Texas South Plains through 01-02z. As it does, more stable easterly updraft inflow emanating from a drier and more deeply mixed boundary-layer will probably contribute to weakening trends, though a few strong surface gusts may be possible before convection dissipates. How much longer renewed thunderstorm development persists to the lee of the higher terrain remains unclear. However, boundary-layer instability likely has peaked, and the risk for strong to severe thunderstorm development probably will wane with the onset of boundary-layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 34350420 33800311 33350277 31920251 31310337 31410412 31790518 32250570 32970607 33810612 34190566 34400484 34350420 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Category: Watches, Warnings, Advisories, & Hazards