Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 644

   Mesoscale Discussion 0644
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0939 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025

   Areas affected...parts of the Lower MS Valley and Mid-South

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 021439Z - 021645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...An increasing severe-thunderstorm threat is expected into
   the afternoon as storms develop/intensify over eastern Arkansas and
   northern Louisiana across central to northern Mississippi. Damaging
   winds should be the main hazard.

   DISCUSSION...An MCV over central AR will likely drive primary
   severe-thunderstorm potential across a portion of the Lower MS
   Valley and Mid-South into the afternoon. Large-scale convective
   outflow arcs from this MCV across southeast AR and northwest LA,
   where incipient storm development is underway. With moderate
   boundary-layer heating of the richly moist air mass ahead of this
   outflow, moderately large buoyancy is expected. Primary mid-level
   flow enhancement attendant to the MCV may remain confined north of
   convective outflows, it will still be sufficient for organized
   clustering/potential bowing structures along the northern end of the
   surface-based instability plume. Damaging winds are likely to be the
   primary overall hazard in this setup.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 05/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   34949219 35319151 35509026 35378940 35108852 34398827
               33608829 33148845 32618913 32259017 32179156 32199262
               32369355 33309268 34949219 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN