Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 595

   Mesoscale Discussion 0595
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1035 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

   Areas affected...Northeast Wisconsin...southern U.P. of Michigan

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 185...

   Valid 290335Z - 290500Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 185 continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong-severe convection will spread across northeast
   Wisconsin into the southern portions of the U.P. of Michigan. New
   watch is not currently anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...A long-lived elongated MCS is progressing
   east-northeast across WI. Much of this activity has struggled to
   generate more than isolated damaging winds and hail, though one
   notable supercell is tracking along this corridor over
   Langlade/Menominee County. Latest VWP data from GRB exhibits intense
   0-3km SRH as a strong LLJ is focused across IA into this portion of
   the upper Great Lakes. While some tornado risk continues, especially
   with embedded supercells, the primary concern going forward appears
   to be wind/hail. Latest radar data supports a strengthening
   low-level warm advection regime as numerous elevated storms extend
   across the southern U.P. of MI. At this time a new watch is not
   anticipated downstream across the U.P., but some risk for hail may
   be noted, especially over Menominee County MI.

   ..Darrow.. 04/29/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...

   LAT...LON   45328916 46058693 45058671 44478899 45328916 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN