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| Mesoscale Discussion 549 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0549 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Areas affected...TX Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168... Valid 242356Z - 250130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168 continues. SUMMARY...Supercells with large to very large hail remain possible this evening. DISCUSSION...Scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing at 2345 UTC across the TX Permian Basin vicinity. Despite generally modest large-scale forcing, strong buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg) and moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support splitting supercells within the weakly capped environment through early evening. Large to very large hail will likely be the primary hazard, especially with any persistent left-movers, while strong to locally severe outflow winds will also be possible in the vicinity of the strongest cells. Increasing MLCINH should result in a gradual decrease in the severe threat later this evening. ..Dean.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 31510158 30000222 29290319 29480348 29810354 30190351 31720303 32870252 32940190 32890166 32470149 31610153 31510158 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN |
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