Mesoscale Discussion 0524 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Areas affected...North Texas...Far Southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161... Valid 230632Z - 230830Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage and hail threat may continue for a couple more hours across parts of north Texas. Weather watch issuance downstream of WW 161 appears unlikely. DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Frederick, Oklahoma shows a line of strong to severe thunderstorms about 25 statute miles to the west of Wichita Falls, Texas. This line is located at the northwestern edge of a moderately unstable airmass. Ahead of the MCS, the RAP has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg extending northward from the Texas Hill Country into parts of north Texas. The instability, along with large-scale ascent ahead of a shortwave trough over northwest Texas, will help the line to be maintained over the next couple of hours. Downstream of the convection, the 07Z RAP forecast sounding at Wichita Falls has 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Fort Worth shows some directional shear in the boundary layer. This shear environment could be enough to maintain an isolated wind-damage threat over the next couple of hours. However, the longevity of the line may be negatively impacted by a capping inversion that is expected to rebuild over time. Also, outflow associated with the line has surged out ahead of the reflectivity, which could be problematic concerning a longer duration severe threat. ..Broyles.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 33509898 33099897 32859860 32669747 32689682 33049646 33429642 33789666 34029761 34089843 33869885 33509898 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Category: Watches, Warnings, Advisories, & Hazards