Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 499

   Mesoscale Discussion 0499
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0201 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

   Areas affected...Southwest...Central and North-central Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 151...152...

   Valid 200701Z - 200900Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 151, 152 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts, isolated large hail and tornadoes will
   continue to be possible for a few more hours across parts of
   south-central, central and north-central Texas.

   DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor and mosaic radar imagery show a
   linear MCS located across the from the Texas Hill Country extending
   north-northeastward into central Texas. Ahead of the line of strong
   to severe storms, a narrow axis of moderate instability is analyzed
   by the RAP. This line is located along the western edge of a 50 to
   60 knot low-level jet. Short-term model forecasts suggest the
   low-level jet will strengthen and shift northward, providing lift
   favorable for continued storm maintenance within the MCS. RAP
   forecast soundings near and ahead of the linear MCS have 0-6 km
   shear around 50 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This
   will support a potential for supercells with isolated large hail.
   Severe wind gusts will also be possible with supercells, and bowing
   segments. A tornado or two will also be possible with supercells or
   any rotating element within the line. Also, forecast soundings along
   the southern end of the line have a capping inversion. This
   inversion is expected to increase with time. As the storms move
   gradually eastward, this cap should help reduce severe potential.

   ..Broyles.. 04/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30369896 31479822 32299782 32779787 33089807 33179836
               33189863 33069898 32769922 32279924 31739957 31010000
               30530031 30230043 30000024 30059947 30369896 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN