Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 456

   Mesoscale Discussion 0456
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0146 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

   Areas affected...north-central to eastern KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 170646Z - 170845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated, marginally severe wind and hail will be possible
   through dawn as both a cluster of storms in north-central Kansas
   moves east-southeast and an additional arc of storms develops
   eastward across eastern Kansas.

   DISCUSSION...Near-term severe potential is mainly expected across
   north-central Kansas where a small west/east-oriented cluster
   recently intensified. With surface temperatures still holding in the
   upper 60s to lower 70s amid upper 50s surface dew points, the
   primary threats with this cluster should be strong to localized
   severe gusts along with marginally severe hail. Even as the
   associated cold pool might yield a surge to the southeast, the
   cluster would impinge on warming 700-mb temperatures, which may
   limit overall intensity. To the southeast of the cluster, along the
   leading edge of the stout EML, some of these updrafts might deepen
   as convection spreads east. Small to isolated severe hail should be
   the primary threat with these semi-discrete cells.

   ..Grams/Thompson.. 04/17/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   38569841 38959875 39519880 39739738 39909645 39909580
               39829548 39699518 39389492 38809472 38499471 38199498
               37859527 37719563 37829653 38409726 38569841 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN