Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 455

   Mesoscale Discussion 0455
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0923 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

   Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 170223Z - 170430Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and potentially strong/damaging
   surface gusts are possible as elevated storms move eastward this
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...Moisture return continues this evening in the
   southern/central Plains. Dewpoints have risen into the mid 50s F in
   south-central Kansas. Even with this increase in low-level moisture,
   cooling surface temperatures have contributed to slowly increasing
   CIN. With the low-level jet increasing within the region (around 50
   kts per KVNX and KICT VAD data), convection has increased in
   coverage and intensity near and east of Dodge City. A continued
   increase in 850 mb winds through the evening will support additional
   convective development and potentially some clustering as activity
   moves into parts of eastern Kansas. There is some possibility that
   additional storms can develop north of the current activity, but
   confidence is low.

   The observed soundings at Dodge City and Topeka showed steep
   mid-level lapse rates (around 8 C/km). The stronger elevated storms
   would be capable of large hail given over 50 kts of effective shear.
   If storms can cluster later this evening, there would be some
   potential for a strong/damaging surface gust to occur as well.

   ..Wendt/Guyer.. 04/17/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37299791 37399941 37520009 37590037 37750039 38110017
               38979984 39369833 38979608 38219530 37649561 37429623
               37269720 37299791 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN