Mesoscale Discussion 0454 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Areas affected...parts of swrn into s cntrl KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162049Z - 162315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An isolated supercell or two may evolve from initially high-based thunderstorm development by 6-7 PM CDT, posing primarily a risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. DISCUSSION...As boundary-layer heating and mixing continues, deepening high-based convective development is ongoing in a corridor near/north of the Raton Mesa vicinity into southwestern Kansas. This appears focused downstream of a weak mid-level perturbation, which is progressing toward the crest of large-scale mid-level ridging across the southern Rockies through southern Great Plains. With continuing insolation, this convective development is likely to persist and gradually spread northeastward and eastward with the supporting large-scale forcing for ascent. Strongest boundary-layer heating appears focused northwest of the Dalhart TX toward Dodge City KS vicinity, where surface dew points remain in the upper 30s to lower 40s F. However, more substantive moistening is ongoing farther east, including a corridor across the Medicine Lodge toward Great Bend KS vicinities, where dew points may continue to increase into and through the lower mid 50s F, as southerly low-level flow strengthens through 23-00Z. It appears that this may contribute mixed-layer CAPE increasing to the order of 1000 J/kg. In the presence of lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, the boundary-layer destabilization may largely remain suppressed by warming, elevated mixed-layer air. However, the eventual intensification of initially high-based convection overspreading the region appears at least possible later this afternoon, particularly near/east of the Dodge City vicinity, aided by inflow of the potentially more unstable air. If this becomes sustained, shear beneath moderate to strong westerly mid/upper flow appears more than sufficient to support the evolution an isolated boundary-layer based supercell or two, primarily posing a risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. ..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC... LAT...LON 38120106 38779896 38019788 37259826 37080128 38120106 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Category: Watches, Warnings, Advisories, & Hazards