Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 430

   Mesoscale Discussion 0430
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0618 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of south and central AL into the FL Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 062318Z - 070115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated damaging wind and/or a tornado
   may persist through the evening.

   DISCUSSION...Despite rich boundary-layer moisture and the presence
   of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, convection has struggled to remain
   organized across parts of AL early this evening, possibly due to
   generally weak lapse rates and some tendency for storms to be
   undercut by outflow. However, deep-layer shear remains favorable for
   organized convection, and a persistent 30-40 kt low-level jet is
   supporting some enhancement to low-level shear/SRH. One cell near
   Montgomery has recently intensified near an outflow boundary, while
   an occasionally strong storm cluster persists near/east of Mobile.
   There remains some potential for a few cells or clusters to acquire
   at least transient organization through the evening, and pose a
   threat for locally damaging wind and/or a tornado. 

   Given the longer-term trends, new watch issuance in the short term
   is considered unlikely. However, if trends begin to support more
   organized upscale growth or sustained rotating cells, then watch
   issuance may become possible.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 04/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30188865 30978805 31318785 33128643 33208584 33098545
               32018539 31618549 31298574 30918610 30708663 30458718
               30188865 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH