Mesoscale Discussion 0425 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Areas affected...parts of sern MS through cntrl AL Concerning...Tornado Watch 131... Valid 061234Z - 061430Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 131 continues. SUMMARY...Convection may continue to undergo further organization and intensification through 9-10 AM CDT, accompanied by increasing risk for strong surface gusts, and a continuing risk for tornadoes. DISCUSSION...At least a bit broader, lower/mid-tropospheric cyclonic circulation appears to be evolving, perhaps including a surface meso-low now migrating east-northeastward into/across the Demopolis AL vicinity. Latest Rapid Refresh now indicates a more prominent south-southwesterly speed maximum associated with this feature, including 50+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer. Although moisture characterized by mid 60s+ surface dew points across central Alabama, between Montgomery and Birmingham still appear to supporting only modest CAPE (around 500 J/kg sampled in 12Z BMX sounding), low-level moisture advection and at least some boundary layer warming are likely to contribute to further destabilization in advance of the convection during the next few hours. Inflow of this air mass may be sufficient to support at least a gradual further intensification of activity during the next few hours, accompanied by increasing potential for strong surface gusts and a few tornadoes. Discrete thunderstorm development is also being maintained near/just ahead of the southern flank of the evolving convective system, and the occasional intensification of these cells, before merging into the line, may also be accompanied by increasing potential for a tornado near the Selma/Montgomery vicinities through mid morning. ..Kerr.. 04/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN... LAT...LON 33198688 33358539 32058702 31338798 31068892 32338827 33198688 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Category: Watches, Warnings, Advisories, & Hazards