Mesoscale Discussion 0423 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Areas affected...parts of sern MS into cntrl AL Concerning...Tornado Watch 129...131... Valid 060827Z - 061030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 129, 131 continues. SUMMARY...Circulations embedded within a line of pre-frontal storms, and perhaps additional more discrete storms near or just ahead of the line, will continue to pose a risk for brief tornadoes and/or locally damaging wind gusts while slowly spreading across southeastern Mississippi into central Alabama through 6-7 AM CDT. DISCUSSION...Convective development has largely remain focused along a slow moving to stalling outflow boundary, now near or south of a line from Chattanooga TN through Huntsville AL and Columbus MS, where it intersects outflow associated with a line of convection extending southward toward a slowly advancing cold front near and south-southwest of Jackson MS. Near/east of this activity, inhibition associated with large-scale ridging aloft continues to suppress deep convective development; however one cell, emerging from pre-frontal bands of weak convection across southeastern Mississippi through the Alabama border vicinity, did recently intensify to the west of Meridian (and probably produce a tornado) prior to beginning to merge into the convective line. The large-scale mid/upper ridging and positively-tilted upstream troughing are very slowly progressing eastward, and it appears that ongoing thunderstorm activity will do likewise. Although the Rapid Refresh suggests that a stronger southerly 850 mb jet core is in the process of shifting into the southern Appalachians, flow on the order of 40+ kt trails southwestward toward the Gulf coast. This is maintaining sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs near weak pre-frontal surface troughing, where a narrow corridor of seasonably moist boundary layer air (including surface dew points near 70) appears to be supporting moderately large CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. ..Kerr.. 04/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 31069046 31648998 32698920 33088868 33338779 33668703 33918634 33108633 32358731 31398882 30779003 31069046 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Category: Watches, Warnings, Advisories, & Hazards